Steve Rosenberg: Russia's elections will have few surprises, but for the Kremlin they matter

Russia’s upcoming parliamentary election, set to take place amidst a challenging wartime atmosphere, is expected to solidify the Kremlin's grip on power. The economic and political landscape has been significantly impacted by the ongoing war with Ukraine, with enemy drones causing extensive damage to oil refineries and logistical facilities. As the public becomes increasingly aware of the conflict's proximity, they have become more anxious.

United Russia, the primary Kremlin-aligned party, is expected to maintain its dominant position in the State Duma, alongside a few other parties that generally align with President Vladimir Putin's stance. However, authorities have implemented stricter controls over the election, which commences on Friday. The Kremlin has suppressed any dissenting voices before the voting period, with one party that dared to question the war being removed from the ballot entirely, and several anti-war politicians facing imprisonment or exile.

President Putin addressed the nation ahead of the election, urging citizens to demonstrate their unity and support for the war effort. He emphasized the importance of shared values, historical memory, and love for the Motherland. With the outcome already determined and Putin's political dominance seemingly unchallenged, analysts view the election as a crucial tool to bolster public support for the war and legitimize Russia's actions.

The summer has been marked by devastating drone attacks from Ukraine, bringing the war closer to home for millions of Russians. These strikes have exacerbated economic woes, as the Russian economy has entered a period of stagnation following the initial boost from substantial military spending. In response, the government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to manage the growing budget deficit.

Strikes on oil refineries led to a severe fuel crisis, while attacks on warehouses belonging to online retailers, such as Wildberries and Ozon, caused significant economic disruption.

Despite these challenges, polls indicate a slight decline in Putin's approval ratings, though they remain high. Independent surveys, such as those conducted by the Levada Center, show Putin's approval at 76% in August, down from 87% in September 2025. Even some members of the Russian elite have expressed discontent, with Andrei Klepach, chief economist of the state VEB.RF bank, warning of potential internal turmoil in Russia.

However, Putin dismisses these concerns, stating that the economy can withstand the ongoing damage and that Ukraine has invited retaliation by targeting critical infrastructure.