Risk of unrest in Asia as Iran war, El Nino threaten food supplies

Severe weather disruptions and the ongoing war in Iran are causing food security risks in Asia that could lead to civil unrest and political instability, according to consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. The war has already disrupted fuel and fertilizer supplies, both vital for agriculture. Now, weather extremes associated with a powerful El Nino are further threatening crops across the region.

Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, is facing uncontrollable wildfires that are disrupting harvests. India, a top rice exporter, is experiencing monsoon rains 15% below normal, while Thailand's sugar harvest is expected to suffer. These combined threats of war and weather are driving up food inflation, an established trigger for unrest.

Over half of the countries identified as high or very high risk on Verisk Maplecroft's Food Security Index also rank in the two highest categories of its Civil Unrest Index, which includes India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Recent protests have already erupted in these nations. The report warns that if food price and availability pressures continue to worsen, and governments fail to respond effectively, unrest and political instability could emerge in these higher-risk markets.

Conflict-afflicted nations like Afghanistan and Myanmar face an even greater risk of a humanitarian catastrophe if a food shock occurs. Thailand, heavily dependent on imported energy and fertilizers, is also facing mounting pressure from debt-ridden farmers ahead of the next planting season. Verisk Maplecroft concludes that the impacts are becoming increasingly visible, with many key agricultural regions having to make planting and fertilization decisions during the peak of the disruption, potentially locking in negative outcomes even if the geopolitical situation improves in the coming months.