Melaka polls to test PH’s strength, ties with BN, says analyst

The upcoming Melaka state election will serve as a test not only of which party controls the 28 seats in the state assembly but also of how well Pakatan Harapan (PH) can navigate its complex relationship with Barisan Nasional (BN). According to political analyst Dr Azrie Azeh, the election offers an early indication of how the political landscape may evolve ahead of the 16th general election (GE16), particularly in light of Umno's 2026 general assembly.

PH must work with BN where necessary while maintaining its own political identity and reform agenda. "PRN Melaka should not be read merely as a contest to determine control of 28 state assembly seats," Azeh explained. "More than that, it is a strategic test of PH's resilience, the ability of its component parties to manage their relationship with BN, and the ability of the Madani government to convert governing legitimacy into electoral legitimacy."

The timing of the election is significant, as Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has called for GE16 to be brought forward, aiming to regain a stronger mandate to lead the country. For PH, this means dealing with a partner that also seeks to rebuild its political strength. BN intends to defend the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election, where PH took five and PN two.

Despite the historical context, BN's strength at the state level does not necessarily translate to parliamentary elections. BN has not won any of Melaka's parliamentary seats in the 2022 general election. The 21 seats should be seen as BN's starting point in negotiations, not a guarantee of the final distribution of seats.

PH must focus on the strength of individual constituencies, considering factors such as voter demographics, previous margins, voting trends, candidate appeal, local issues, and the party's grassroots machinery. The election will also expose whether PH's position in the federal government has translated into stronger support at the state level. Local candidates and issues can make a significant difference, as voters may support PH at the federal level but choose a different party in a state election.

The situation within PKR, particularly with its deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar on temporary leave, adds another layer of complexity. PKR must demonstrate its ability to maintain effectiveness when leadership responsibilities are redistributed among its leaders. The political reforms and identity of PH will ultimately be assessed through the outcome of the election, not just PKR alone.

DAP and Amanah, as other coalition components, have their own political networks and voter bases, making it crucial for PH to integrate their differences and work together.