How This Freight Cycle Could Last

The 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar Series recently concluded in Nashville, drawing nearly 360 professionals from the freight industry. Reliance Partners Chief Revenue Officer Thom Albrecht addressed the attendees, discussing the forces that could prolong the current freight cycle. The event covered a range of topics, from federal safety policy to cargo theft and credit risk, culminating in a presentation on the future of freight brokerage.

Albrecht's presentation was divided into two parts: an overview of the consumer and business economy, followed by a detailed analysis of the structural changes in the trucking capacity market, which he believes could mark the beginning of a new freight cycle.

The economic data presented at the seminar painted a mixed picture. While consumer wages had been growing steadily over the past 35 months, recent declines in April and May suggested a reversal. Category-level inflation was more complex than the headline CPI figure indicated, with some goods experiencing significant price increases while others fell in value.

Savings rates were low, and credit card delinquencies had risen to 7.1%. Despite these challenges, business demand was better than expected, with customer inventories and replenishment freight showing steadier growth.

Albrecht argued that the rise of fraudulent and non-compliant carriers had been a long-standing issue, with compliant fleets bearing the cost of operating correctly. Compliant carriers operated at $2.38 per mile, compared to $1.65 for non-compliant carriers. This cost advantage could amount to up to $6.5 million for a 50-truck motor carrier. The number of newly registered DOT numbers for for-hire, interstate, and general freight carriers had surged in recent years, with nearly 60,000 new registrations in 2025 alone.

Albrecht outlined the signs of fraudulent activity driving the growth in non-compliant carriers, including suspicious phone numbers, single addresses for multiple companies, and CDL mills advertising without English proficiency. He also noted the potential for a "Trucking Super Cycle," which could last longer than two years and feature pricing stronger than the CPI, if not double-digit increases.

While Albrecht acknowledged the risks in making such a bold proclamation, he pointed to recent regulatory changes and upcoming rulemakings as indicators of the potential for a super cycle.