How This Freight Cycle Could Last

Nearly 360 professionals attended the 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar Series at the Grand Hyatt Nashville, marking the largest turnout in the event's history. The seminar covered various topics including federal safety policy, cargo theft, credit risk, and the future of freight brokerage. Thom Albrecht, Reliance Partners' Chief Revenue Officer, presented his freight, capacity, and economic update, explaining that the industry might be entering a freight cycle unlike any in the past two decades.

Albrecht discussed the mixed state of the economy, where inflation-adjusted wages have risen for 35 consecutive months, but then turned negative in April and May of this year. Consumers are still recovering from a purchasing-power decline, with category-level inflation far exceeding the 3.5% headline CPI figure. Gasoline prices have surged by 26.7% year-over-year, while some goods like bacon, used vehicles, and eggs have seen a decrease on a year-over-year basis.

Savings rates sit at around 3%, which is near a historical low compared to the 8% average. Business demand is not robust, but it is better than in 2025, and customer inventories are near survey-history lows. Nonetheless, this year's replenishment freight has been steadier than the previous year.

AI-related capital spending accounted for nearly 70% of first-half 2026 GDP growth, and when tech, government, and AI spending are stripped away, the rest of the economy contracted slightly in Q1 and barely grew in Q2. Housing has been stagnant for nearly four years, with existing home sales per 1,000 households falling to roughly 26, well below the 44-59 range of the 2000s and 2010s.

The affordability of housing has consumed an estimated 43% of household disposable income, compared to a more affordable level of around 30%.

Albrecht argued that fraudulent and non-compliant carriers have thrived for years, while compliant fleets bear the cost of operating correctly. Compliant carriers operate at roughly $2.38 a mile, while non-compliant carriers cut corners, resulting in a $1.65 a mile operation. The latter provides up to a $6.5 million cost advantage for a 50-truck motor carrier compared to a compliant 50-truck fleet.

The FMCSA has been moving forward with rulemaking, including the English Language Proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and cabotage rules, with new entrant proficiency exam rulemaking also in the pipeline.