After far-right win, Germany’s Merz nervously faces new state polls

Two German state elections held on Sunday could deal a double blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who recently witnessed his party's defeat at the hands of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD's landslide victory in the eastern state, winning almost 44% of the vote compared to Merz's CDU's 17%, has raised concerns about Merz's future as chancellor.

The alternative right-wing party has now emerged as the leading force in nationwide polls, with Merz's personal approval ratings hovering around 10%.

Merz's coalition with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is increasingly plagued by infighting, further complicating his position. A political scientist at Ruhr University Bochum, Oliver Lembcke, warns that the combination of election defeats, poor personal ratings, and internal party doubts could lead to a rapid collapse of political authority.

In the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is an observer in the main battle between the SPD, led by popular state premier Manuela Schwesig, and the AfD. If the CDU fails to clear the 5% threshold needed to remain in the state parliament, it would be a historic first and put immense pressure on Merz. Although Merz has vowed to reboot Germany's economy, rearm the country, and address irregular immigration to soothe voter concerns, the AfD's success in these polls suggests dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties remains high.