After far-right win, Germany’s Merz nervously faces new state polls

Two German state elections scheduled for Sunday may deal a double blow to embattled Chancellor Friedrich Merz, following his party's devastating defeat in the far-right Alternative for Germany's (AfD) victory. The tight races are set to take place in Berlin, the country's capital, and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The AfD is expected to make significant gains in both states, after winning almost 44% to 17% in Saxony-Anhalt, a former communist region.

Merz, who assumed leadership two years ago, is facing mounting speculation about his future as his personal approval ratings hover around 10%. The 70-year-old leader has promised to revive Germany's stagnant economy, enhance the country's defense capabilities against Russia, and tackle irregular immigration to alleviate voter concerns and draw them away from the AfD.

Amid the growing political uncertainty, eight CDU state premiers have united, declaring that Germany needs stability now more than ever, rather than discussing personnel changes. However, Merz's coalition with the center-left SPD is increasingly divided by internal strife. Political scientist Oliver Lembcke at Ruhr University Bochum warns that a series of election defeats, poor personal ratings, and internal party doubts could quickly lead to a collapse of political authority.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, CDU is observing the main battle between the SPD led by popular state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD. With the AfD polling at 37% and CDU at just 7%, Merz's party could drop perilously close to the 5% threshold necessary to retain a seat in the state parliament. The collapse of the CDU below this critical mark would be historic and put immense pressure on Merz.

In Berlin, the ruling CDU is neck-and-neck with the far-left Die Linke, which is popular with young voters and advocates drastic changes to address the housing crisis. A CDU defeat in the capital would further tarnish Merz's reputation. Despite the AfD's expected strong showing in Berlin, it is anticipated to remain out of power in both states due to a coalition agreement banning cooperation with the party.

As the election results approach, Merz is preparing for a tense CDU executive committee meeting to discuss the outcomes and chart the path forward. He has also waived plans to attend the UN General Assembly, sending his foreign minister in his stead. The CDU's dissatisfaction is palpable, but those with a more measured approach hope to avoid bolstering the AfD's prospects under co-leader Alice Weidel.