Heat-related lost labor emerges as a major cost of carbon emissions
As the climate warms, people are more exposed to heat stress, which depresses productivity and the global economy. A study from the University of California, Davis, quantifies the cost of heat stress on global labor.
According to a study published in Nature Climate Change, heat stress is causing significant losses in global labor productivity. Each ton of carbon dioxide emitted in 2025 is estimated to cost $41 in lost productivity, making labor the second-largest contributor to the social cost of carbon, just behind heat-related deaths. Highly populated areas experiencing critical heat and humidity thresholds, such as India, Nigeria, China, Pakistan, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, are particularly affected.
The study, led by Frances Moore from UC Davis, combines projections from the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metric with job-specific estimates of work intensity and outdoor exposure. Heat-stress exposure varies globally, with agricultural and construction laborers being the most vulnerable, followed by indoor workers without adequate cooling.
Employers and policymakers must recognize heat stress as a serious health hazard and prioritize measures to mitigate its impacts, such as providing shade, water, breaks, and shifting work to cooler hours.
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