Export Constraints Curb Kazakhstan’s Ability to Offset the Global Oil Shortage
Kazakhstan, which has major oil reserves, is not in a position to help offset a looming energy crisis by expanding production, industry analysts say. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Russia sanctioned and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline knocked out of action by Iranian drones, experts are predicting a spike in energy prices. The Saudi pipeline alone was responsible for supplying up to 4…
Kazakhstan, a nation rich in oil reserves, faces a significant challenge in mitigating a global energy crisis, according to industry analysts. The Strait of Hormuz, blocked, Russia's sanctions, and Iran's intervention through drones targeting Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline have collectively disrupted the oil supply chain. The latter's capacity alone accounts for up to 4 million tons of oil daily, primarily destined for Asian markets.
Kazakhstan cannot easily compensate for this loss due to its own declining production and vulnerabilities in export channels.
The Kazakh oil industry confronts two major hurdles: a decline in production and the constant threat to existing export options. In 2026's first eight months, oil output fell 8.4% short of the target, totaling 61.7 million tons. Scheduled maintenance at the Karachaganak oil and gas field, the country's largest, further dampens production, says Nurlan Zhumagulov, a Kazakh industry expert cited by Kazinform news agency.
Production forecasts have been reduced from 100 million tons to 96 million tons for 2026. In 2025, production reached 99.6 million tons.
Getting the oil to market presents further complications. Kazakhstan relies heavily on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to transport 80% of its exports to Russia's Novorossiysk port. This route has been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drones, causing significant disruptions. The most recent attack occurred on September 8th, targeting a CPC oil loading facility.
Alternative routes, such as the trans-Caspian route to Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, face logistical limitations and lack the capacity to significantly offset Kazakhstan's dependency on CPC. In 2025, CPC transported approximately 65 million tons of Kazakh crude, whereas the BTC route could only handle 2.2 million tons.
Kazakhstan is actively exploring the Baku-Supsa pipeline to export up to 5 million additional tons of oil to European markets. However, the construction of a trans-Caspian pipeline, a long-discussed solution, would require substantial time, political will, and financial resources. Kazakhstan lacks the necessary resources to implement this project independently.
Industry analyst Joseph Shumunov, writing for the Astana Times, emphasizes that Europe's diversification efforts will depend on Kazakhstan's ability to secure financing and long-term commitments for such projects.
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