Dax aktuell: Anleger warten auf Fed‑Entscheid – Dax leicht im Plus

Wednesday’s market focus will be on monetary policy, specifically the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision in the evening. Traditionally, investors tend to stay away from market transactions during such events to react to potential new market conditions afterward. This is evident in the German benchmark index the Dax, which was slightly higher at 25,521 points on Wednesday compared to the previous day.

The Fed's decision is already determined, and market participants gauge a 95% probability of a 25 basis point increase in interest rates, ranging from 3.75 to 4.0 percent. Strong labor market data from the previous week and persistent high inflation figures from last Friday have solidified expectations. Unlike previous Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the current Fed Chair has been more reserved in communication and provides little insight into his decision-making process.

Nonetheless, other members of the interest rate committee have not shied away from expressing their positions before the official vote. The outcome of the voting in the twelve-member Federal Open Market Committee will be crucial, especially after three Fed officials already voted for a rate hike in July. Market analysts expect investors to closely monitor the Fed's words for any indications of potential future rate hikes.

With high energy prices and related inflation risks, investors will pay close attention to the Fed's statements. Additionally, markets are anticipating another rate hike from the Fed in December. The framing of monetary policy decisions, whether a one-time measure or open to further steps, will be vital for markets. Apart from monetary policy, energy prices and bond yields continue to drive the market.

Oil prices are currently above $108 per barrel for the North Sea Brent type, showing no signs of decline in November due to attacks on oil tankers in the Hormuz Strait and damage to a key East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. European gas prices are also at a very high level, with the reference price for a megawatt-hour of gas recently reaching over 80 Euros, equivalent to prices seen in 2022.

US Treasury yields surged to a new high on Tuesday at 5.04 percent, the highest since the 2007 financial crisis. On Wednesday, they fell slightly to 4.99 percent. Meanwhile, the yield on the ten-year federal bond also decreased to 3.53 percent on Wednesday, but could change significantly following the Fed's decision. Should the bank announce a decisive interest rate hike, bond yields could rise further.