Bank of England: Britische Inflation steigt vor Zinsentscheid auf Fünfmonatshoch

Inflation in the United Kingdom has risen for the second month in a row in August, driven primarily by significantly higher fuel prices. The data was released a day before the Bank of England's interest rate decision. Consumer prices increased by 3.1 percent compared to the previous year in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday.

This rate was as high as it had been since March and above the 2.9 percent level from the previous month. Economists had predicted a 3.1 percent rise in the median estimate, while the Bank of England (BoE) forecasted a rate of 2.8 percent. Fuel prices, due to the ongoing war in Iran, were a key factor in this increase. The pound rose after the data was published.

Service sector inflation, an indicator of domestic price pressure, remained at 3.4 percent, and core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained at 2.6 percent. The BoE members are expected to keep rates unchanged during their meeting this week. The weak labor market has so far helped limit price pressure stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

However, maintaining this stance will become increasingly difficult as the war continues. UK drivers now face the highest diesel and gasoline prices since 2022, with oil prices above $100 per barrel. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey also warned of new risks, particularly for food prices, due to extreme drought in the United Kingdom and the looming impacts of El Niño.

Bloomberg Economics analysis suggests energy costs for households could rise by around 25 percent in January if the regulatory limit on prices is reinstated. Such an increase could push consumer price inflation in 2027 above four percent, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Andrew Burnham to introduce new household aid measures at a time when public finances are already under strain.