Cómo reaccionar en Bolsa al posible freno en la IA

The week began with new turbulence among the key players in the AI-driven stock rally. Unlike previous occasions driven by external pressures, this time it was the own companies in the sector calling for a slowdown in AI development due to security concerns. Analysts consulted agreed on two main points. Firstly, the proposed slowdown does not imply a complete halt in AI development.

With this base, the response to a potential slowdown should not mean exiting the sector but rather a rebalancing of portfolios. Current context suggests that the response should not be leaving technology or questioning the structural potential of AI, analysts from Tressis reiterated. Joaquín Robles, an analyst from Banco BiG, pointed out that they do not propose abandoning positions related to AI, instead, reducing exposure in the most speculative part of the chain.

The latent risk in recent months, adds Joaquín Robles, is that high expectations make any change seem like a great threat, and this circumstance is compounded by the large profits accumulated since late 2022 in the sector, so an adjustment in forecasts could cause a profit takeout. Reducing exposure and diversifying portfolios, even within the tech sector, are the options most recommended by consulted analysts.

Diego Fernández Elices, director of investments at AandG Global Investors, proposed a relevant but by no means dominant position in AI-linked equities. Diversifying investments is always one of the dogmas analysts pass on. At the moment, this premise becomes even more relevant. Xavier Carulla, manager of Arquia Gestión, explained that in our investment funds we maintain exposure to AI, because we still believe it is a trend transforming many industries.

However, it is not the only theme present in our portfolios: in an environment of very high expectations, where there may be more volatility around AI, we believe it is important to avoid a portfolio overly concentrated in the same stocks. The excess weight of the star sector of recent years could become a significant risk for portfolios if the proposed slowdown in AI development materializes.

Analysts temper the scope of this possible slowdown. Tressis' analysis team is working on a scenario where AI continues to transform the economy, but where market expectations may be ahead of the industry's ability to convert all that growth into profits. Adjustments within the sector, they add, the main adjustment would be to reduce risk concentration, especially in those companies directly linked to the AI investment cycle: semiconductors, data center equipment, or some of the major companies making the biggest infrastructure investments.

Diversifying within the sector is another alternative. Joaquín Robles from Banco BiG pointed out that for months they have been seeking greater variety within the AI sector through companies specializing in infrastructure, energy generation, and tech businesses in emerging markets. As an example, Robles suggests that the focus could shift from stocks in the most speculative part of the chain, which may currently be related to hardware and components, to companies that are starting to monetize their AI investments.

To add more breadth to the portfolio, a possible mistake for investors, as analysts point out, is to confuse diversification by number of companies with real risk diversification. They argue that having several tech companies does not necessarily mean being diversified if all depend on continued growth in AI spending. To ensure real risk diversification, Tressis proposes maintaining exposure to the theme but with a more selective approach and a larger weight of companies where AI can be an additional driver of growth and productivity, not necessarily the only reason for its valuation.

Examples of concrete investment opportunities, according to Tressis, are Schneider Electric or Prysmian, businesses with more growth avenues and that could be reinforced by the surge in technological innovation. The adjustments proposed by Diego Fernández Elices, director of investments at AandG Global Investors, start from the premise that at this point in the cycle, we believe the valuation offers a cushion that cannot be ignored.

He warns that the companies trading at the most demanding multiples are the ones that could suffer the most from any adjustment in future expectations around AI. The proposed re-balancing of portfolios opens the door to alternatives to total exit from AI-linked stocks.