Ukambani vote: Can Kalonzo still rise to bargain his way to the top?

For 15 years, Kalonzo Musyoka's political strategy revolved around promising Ukambani support in exchange for a top position, which helped him secure the Vice Presidency and become the primary leader of the Ukambani region. However, the political landscape in 2027 appears to be shifting, with three challengers vying to lead the region: Dr. Augustus Kyalo Muli, Mwengi Mutuse, and Vincent Kawaya.

Their approaches differ: Muli emphasizes empowerment, Mutuse focuses on development, and Kawaya offers access to the government. If the current political scenario unfolds as projected—with Kalonzo holding 40%, Muli 20%, Kawaya 20%, and Mutuse 20%—he would still be the dominant force in Ukambani but would lose his majority. This change could significantly impact his negotiating power when it comes to forming political alliances.

Although Kalonzo remains a well-known political figure, Gachagua and Sifuna have emerged as formidable opponents on the national stage. Meanwhile, locally, Muli, Mutuse, and Kawaya are challenging Kalonzo's unassailable grip on Ukambani. If the 40/20/20/20 distribution persists, Kalonzo would no longer have a united front to negotiate from, but instead, would possess the largest piece of a fragmented region.

As a Kitui elder noted, "A king who cannot bring his whole kingdom cannot demand the whole price." The critical question for the 2027 elections is whether Kalonzo can still leverage Ukambani to rise to the top or if he first needs to negotiate his way back into the region's leadership.