Trade fragmentation could hit poor economies much harder than rich ones, WTO warns
Global trade fragmentation will severely impact the world's poorest economies. Least-developed countries could see GDP fall significantly by 2050. These nations rely heavily on international trade and global production networks. Disrupted supply chains and higher trade costs will hurt them most. Enhanced cooperation offers the best path for their economic growth.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) warns that global trade fragmentation could disproportionately harm the poorest economies, with real GDP in least-developed countries (LDCs) projected to fall by 10.6% by 2050 in a "geo-fragmented world" scenario. This is significantly worse than the 7.3% decline expected for middle-income economies and 2.9% for high-income economies.
The WTO's modelling indicates that the economic damage from a breakdown in multilateral cooperation would be several times harder on poor countries than on rich ones. The report suggests that many low-income economies depend disproportionately on international trade, external demand, and technology spillovers, making them particularly vulnerable to rising trade costs and access to major markets dependent on geopolitical alignment.
Written by urgent.news from The Economic Times - Economy's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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