The War In West Asia In The Aftermath Of The New Delhi Summit

As the war in West Asia continues unabated, Saudi fighter jets have been attacking Houthi positions despite a meeting held on the sidelines of the New Delhi BRICS Summit. This meeting, described as the first since the war began in February, aimed to find a breakthrough between the Iranian President and the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince.

However, this follow-up meeting, where Iran was supposed to present a plan for a safe transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, appears to have been overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in Yemen, where the Houthi rebels have gained significant ground. The Houthis now control the mouth of the Red Sea, while missile strikes from Iraq have damaged the Saudi East-West pipeline, disrupting the evacuation of oil from the kingdom.

Despite these setbacks, the BRICS members have not abandoned hope for a resolution to the crisis. While the group cannot impose a ceasefire or peacekeeping force, its diplomatic reach is a valuable asset in these circumstances. It comprises major energy producers and consumers, including countries with close ties to Iran, the Gulf states, Russia, China, and India.

The members expressed deep concern over the conflict, called for maximum restraint, and condemned attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities. India, Russia, and China played a key role in steering diplomatic talks, which led to a meeting between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, during the summit.

The talks between Tehran and the Gulf capitals demonstrate that direct communication is still possible even amid the wider confrontation. The BRICS grouping's comparative advantage lies in providing an umbrella for various diplomatic channels to operate simultaneously. While the group resisted the temptation to act as a mediator, its members agreed on the importance of protecting commercial shipping, energy infrastructure, and civilian and nuclear facilities.

Discussions over a temporary shipping arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz have become significant in this context, as a limited corridor would prevent a complete reopening of the waterway. This would offer a form of crisis management rather than peace-making, which is precisely what markets require in such challenging times.

The economic consequences of the ongoing conflict cannot be understated. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most crucial energy arteries, and the Red Sea/Suez Canal, a parallel route for global trade, have become vulnerable to disruption. A prolonged or simultaneous disruption of both routes would lead to soaring oil, freight, insurance, and import costs, exacerbating inflation.

As it stands, the benchmark Brent crude price has risen from $73 in February to $107 on Monday morning, while major stock markets, such as the Sensex and the Shanghai Composite Index, have plummeted by thousands of points. China, with its deep relationships with Tehran and the Gulf monarchies, and its interest in maintaining energy supplies and trade routes, holds significant leverage in these negotiations.

Meanwhile, India, with its broad strategic partnerships and deepening ties with the United States, can serve as a potential bridge role in facilitating diplomatic discussions.