The Commodities Feed: Saudi supply uncertainty has oil extending gains

Oil prices surged yesterday due to Saudi supply uncertainty, following a major escalation in the Middle East and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's 7 million barrel per day East-West pipeline. ICE Brent reached just below $110 per barrel, a level of resistance that the market has struggled to surpass over the past three days. In the end, front-month futures closed 1% higher at $105.68 per barrel, following comments from President Trump on both Iran and Russia/Ukraine.

Trump indicated that Iran was open to making a deal and that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to cease attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. However, the pipeline in Saudi Arabia remains offline, with potential outage durations ranging from several weeks to uncertain. Saudi Arabia has oil in storage at Yanbu, which should sustain exports for several days, but port stocks could run out before the pipeline resumes.

Some analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia may attempt to increase exports through the Strait of Hormuz, but the disruptions in that region may make this more challenging. Despite President Trump's claims that Russia and Ukraine have halted their attacks on each other's energy infrastructure, middle distillate cracks remain high, suggesting skepticism about the agreement.

Russia continues to maintain a diesel export ban until the end of September. There are concerns about potential US export controls on oil and refined products, but the US administration remains against the idea. European natural gas prices remain high, with TTF trading well above EUR80 per MWh. The tight global LNG market and the approaching northern hemisphere heating season leave the market vulnerable.

In metals, gold slipped as oil prices drove inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Copper also declined due to AI concerns affecting tech stocks and improving exchange availability, which reduced some supply worries. China is estimated to have purchased nearly 13 million metric tons of US soybeans this season, surpassing half of its annual commitment of 25 million metric tons through 2028.

This progress is seen as a positive signal for US-China trade relations ahead of President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry reported a 24% year-on-year decline in grain and legume exports to 4.3 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing season, with corn exports nearly doubling to 1.8 million metric tons and wheat shipments declining 48% year-over-year to 2.1 million metric tons. The overall drop in exports was attributed to continued Russian attacks on Black Sea trade routes.