New IEF Report Highlights Growing Importance of LNG Market Security as Global Trade Expands

The International Energy Forum (IEF) has released a new report titled "Global LNG Market Security" in collaboration with the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC). The report examines the changing structure of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets and the implications for energy security, affordability, and market resilience.

LNG trade is projected to reach around 800 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2031, although the pace of growth depends on various factors such as economic conditions, energy prices, infrastructure development, and policy. Despite the expansion of global LNG trade - from 133 bcm in 2000 to over 600 bcm expected in 2026 - supply remains highly concentrated among a small group of exporters.

Critical infrastructure and shipping capacity also require continued investment, and major physical and "virtual" chokepoints impact global LNG market security.

The report highlights the Strait of Hormuz as a critical LNG chokepoint, with nearly 20% of global LNG trade transiting through it. Around 75% of India's, 87% of Pakistan's, and 71% of Bangladesh's LNG imports were sourced through the Hormuz in 2024. While China's exposure to the Hormuz is lower at 22%, the scale of its imports means disruptions can still significantly increase competition for replacement cargoes.

The report emphasizes that LNG security requires a balance between stable long-term procurement and greater flexibility, supported by diversified supply, adequate infrastructure, and effective trading capabilities. It also notes that safety is not solely dependent on physical chokepoints, as feed-gas shortages, domestic supply obligations, regulatory decisions, and commercial constraints can act as "virtual" chokepoints.