Rich countries face Covid-related costs for 20 more years, says OECD
There's also a 1 in 2 chance of another similar pandemic in the next 25 years.
A new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warns that the health and economic effects of Covid-19 will persist for the next two decades. The pandemic led to increases in smoking, alcohol consumption, and unhealthy eating habits, while also disrupting care for chronic disease patients. These issues continue to strain today's economies and healthcare systems.
In addition to the immediate financial burdens, there is a one-in-two chance that another pandemic of similar scale could occur within the next 25 years. The report emphasizes the importance of early intervention to prevent the worst health and economic impacts. It highlights that nearly 7 million people died from Covid between 2020 and May 2023, and the global economy shrank by nearly 4% in 2020, comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.
To test the resilience of health systems and economies, the authors modeled outbreaks of various viruses, including Ebola, avian influenza, influenza A, coronavirus, and measles. The findings suggest that without treatments or vaccines, 1% of the population could perish from a coronavirus-like outbreak, while an influenza A-like outbreak could claim the lives of more than 5% of the population within the first nine months.
GDP would decline by 2.7% during a coronavirus-like outbreak, but could plummet by 16.2% in the case of an outbreak similar to measles. The report underscores the significance of early public health measures such as hand-washing, wearing masks, and maintaining social distancing to safeguard both lives and economic activities, thereby minimizing the need for more extreme measures in the future.
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