New TB Vaccines Could Save Seven Million Lives, on a Model Nobody Has Published

A new study suggests that forthcoming tuberculosis vaccines could prevent over 7 million deaths over the next two decades, according to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. However, the vaccines' success hinges on global supply reaching the countries most in need. Gavi's chief, Sania Nishtar, described the new TB vaccines as "the next blockbuster immunisation tool" if manufacturers and donors can ensure affordable and reliable supply for high-burden countries.

Tuberculosis is the world's deadliest infectious disease, causing 1.23 million deaths in 2024, according to the World Health Organization. Currently, the only licensed TB vaccine is the Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, which has been in use for over a century. While it provides protection for infants and young children against severe forms of TB, its effectiveness diminishes over time.

Gavi's analysis indicates that the first new vaccine candidates for adolescents and adults could avert up to 7.3 million deaths between 2030 and 2050. The study also projects up to $135 billion in economic benefits for low- and middle-income countries by mid-century. However, Gavi cautioned that financing gaps, uncertain demand, and weak investment could hinder vaccine rollout after approval.

The alliance is currently working with partners to prepare for timely access and wider uptake once the vaccines are licensed.