Kim pro quo: North Korea is emerging from international isolation by backing Russia’s war in Ukraine

North Korea has shown remarkable economic growth despite being isolated from the world due to sanctions and a nuclear program. In July, South Korea's central bank reported a 3%+ year-over-year economic growth for the third consecutive year, a significant improvement since the sanctions began in 2017. This turnaround was unexpected, as North Korea had been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, sealed its borders, and its nuclear program further estranged it from the West and even its traditional allies in China and Russia.

However, North Korea's recovery was not solely dependent on its partnership with Russia. The country reopened its trade with China, which had collapsed from $2.8 billion in 2019 to $539 million in 2020, and $318 million in 2021. As trade resumed in 2022, it reached around $2.3 billion by 2023, providing supplies of fuel, fertilizer, machinery, and consumer goods.

At the same time, North Korea invested in construction, agriculture, and industrial development, with ambitious plans for rebuilding the capital, Pyongyang, and modernizing factories in 20 cities and counties over a decade in the "Regional Development 20x10 Policy."

These domestic initiatives, which aim to narrow economic disparities between the capital and the provinces, have been visible through satellite imagery and factory installations in all 20 targeted communities by their first year. The 20x10 program also focuses on food production, agricultural mechanization, and housing, representing a shift away from traditional heavy industry priorities.

Meanwhile, North Korea has become a key supplier of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles to Russia, providing over 15 million artillery rounds. This resource has contributed significantly to North Korea's economic upturn, along with other factors such as reopening trade with China, domestic construction and industrial development, and a growing smartphone economy in its capital city.