ICE arrests surged under Trump, but the share of those with criminal records plummeted

A recent study examining federal immigration enforcement reveals that despite a surge in arrests during Donald Trump's presidencies, the proportion of those arrested with criminal records fell significantly. Researchers from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and the University of California, Berkeley, analyzed over 1.5 million ICE arrests from October 2015 to March 2026.

They found that while arrests rose by 43 percent during the first Trump term and 214 percent during the second, the share of arrested individuals with criminal convictions dropped from 66 percent to just 34 percent. This shift was driven by a dramatic increase in community-based arrests, which accounted for 47 percent of all apprehensions during the second Trump term compared to 17 percent in the prior year.

However, the drop in conviction rates was not solely attributable to this method, explaining only about a quarter of the decline. The remaining three-quarters were due to a decrease in the number of arrested individuals with criminal records across both arrest types, with a 10 percentage point drop in community arrests and a 16 percentage point decrease in law enforcement agency arrests.

The research also uncovered geographic disparities, with sanctuary cities experiencing more community arrests, while other regions saw spikes in jail-based arrests. Despite these variations, the nationwide trend of declining convictions persisted.