Euro: Support holds near 1.15 against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret indicate that the EUR/USD exchange rate is presently hovering near the 1.15 mark, although it is marginally lower but beginning to stabilize around the mid/lower-1.15 range. They attribute this stability to steady yield spreads and cautious comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

According to their analysis, the fair value of the EUR/USD pair is approximately 1.1625. They also point out that technical indicators consider 1.15 as a crucial support level, while resistance is predicted to emerge around 1.16, close to the 200-day moving average.

In the latest market data, the EUR has experienced a slight 0.1% decline against the USD, yet it remains just above the one-month low observed on Monday and is attempting to achieve some stabilization in the mid/lower-1.15 range. This week's ZEW investor sentiment survey, a key market indicator, was mixed, with the expectations component falling short of predictions, but the current situation series displaying an unexpected improvement and significant recovery.

Forex traders are currently focusing on broader market dynamics and the market's overall mood, looking ahead to Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting to gauge its potential influence on market sentiment.

The options market remains subdued, gradually moving towards a more neutral stance. The EUR's underlying fundamentals are positive, with yield spreads staying consistent as European policymakers continue to exhibit a hawkish tone. One possible fair value estimate, based solely on Germany-US 2-year yield spreads, is placed at 1.1625.

Despite a bearish outlook on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the neutral threshold at 50 and is only moderately bearish in the low 40s, it is still well above the oversold level at 30. This suggests that while the EUR/USD pair might be experiencing short-term weakness, it has not yet moved into a more prolonged downtrend.