Cable TV has been shrinking forever — from 100 million subscribers in 2016 to 62 million now. But there's a floor.

Since 2016, the number of pay TV subscribers in the United States has plummeted from over 100 million to just 62 million. Despite this dramatic decline, analysts at MoffettNathanson believe that the industry may have hit a bottom and stabilized at around 50 million subscribers by 2030. Pay TV continues to dwindle, with subscriber numbers dropping 4.6% in the second quarter of the year, a 0.8% improvement from the previous year.

One reason for this continued contraction is the growing draw of sports programming. While some live sports, such as NFL games, have moved to streaming platforms, the majority of high-profile sports leagues still require a pay TV subscription. Even those who no longer subscribe to pay TV initially still make up a sizable audience.

Moreover, pay TV providers are gradually reassembling the traditional cable TV bundle. Companies like Charter now offer packages that combine traditional live TV networks with popular streamers like Paramount, Peacock, and Disney+; this approach seems to resonate with consumers. Charter's subscriber base, which experienced a 10% decline two years ago, has now stabilized at a 1% annual drop.

While pay TV continues to shrink, the end of this decline could hold valuable lessons. For instance, a significant portion of the population still finds value in sports programming, and the traditional cable TV bundle is experiencing a resurgence. As pay TV providers adapt to shifting consumer preferences, the industry may have finally achieved a new equilibrium.