Agentic Payments Are Growing, but Most x402 Payments Aren’t From AI Agents

The infrastructure for autonomous artificial intelligence agents to make online purchases, known as x402, is advancing rapidly, but the majority of transactions on this platform are not driven by AI agents. An analysis by blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs found that only a small percentage of payments on x402 protocol, worth $25.62 million out of the initial $52.7 million, can be attributed to autonomous AI agents.

TRM removed transactions originating from self-payments, large payments by a few entities, and sellers with few buyers to estimate the commerce value. The study suggests that common software scripts, scheduled processes, and self-dealing can generate blockchain records similar to those from AI agents. While x402 is designed to facilitate such autonomous transactions, it does not inherently require AI.

The protocol's design allows conventional scripts to execute the same sequence of actions. TRM Labs applied various methods to identify agentic payments, including analyzing facilitator-broadcast payments with low amounts and sustained activity, as well as checking for registration in agent registries or payments to multiple sellers.

However, these methods may undercount genuine agents due to the nature of on-chain data. The analysis also highlights the need for better agent registration, machine-readable counterparty reputation, and monitoring systems that focus on transaction volume instead of just dollar thresholds to address potential compliance issues.