The U.S.-China AI War Has Kazakhstan Caught in the Crossfire

The United States and China are competing fiercely to influence the development of artificial intelligence (AI), and the Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan finds itself caught in the middle. Kazakhstan is a member of both the American-led Pax Silica initiative and China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO).

This dual membership places Kazakhstan in a complex geopolitical situation as the U.S. seeks to limit China's influence over AI technology and its supply chains. The U.S. government is reportedly preparing to inform several countries that they must choose between the competing AI initiatives, warning that involvement in China's WAICO could result in exclusion from the U.S.-led Pax Silica coalition.

However, China has rejected the notion that countries should be compelled to choose sides, urging the U.S. to stop encouraging such choices and avoid politicizing trade and technology issues. For Kazakhstan, both initiatives present unique opportunities. Pax Silica, launched by the U.S. in December 2025, aims to secure critical minerals, semiconductors, energy, data centers, and computing infrastructure needed for the AI economy.

Kazakhstan, which possesses vast reserves of critical minerals, could benefit from U.S.-led investment, technology, and supply-chain partnerships. WAICO, on the other hand, offers Kazakhstan a seat at the table in a China-backed framework for international AI cooperation, promoting open-weight AI models and accessible technology.

President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev of Kazakhstan has expressed support for both frameworks, emphasizing the importance of AI serving humanity and ensuring fair access to modern technology. However, the dual membership may pose challenges for Kazakhstan, as the U.S. views its participation in AI ecosystems as a matter of trust and cooperation rather than mere commercial engagement.

The country's strategic location and critical mineral reserves make it a valuable player in the emerging AI supply chain, but the pressure to select a side could complicate its traditional multi-vector foreign policy. For now, Kazakhstan has not been forced to make a definitive choice, but the emerging contest over AI may test the country's ability to maintain ties with both the U.S. and China.