Swedish election cliffhanger: Opposition ahead as final count continues

Sweden's centre-left opposition leads early in the national election count, with preliminary figures suggesting the Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson's bloc narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's governing alliance. The margin is so close that both sides are hesitant to claim victory. With votes from 6,195 of Sweden's 6,312 districts counted, the opposition is projected to secure 176 seats in the 349-member Riksdag, compared to the right-wing bloc's 173.

Andersson, who previously served as prime minister, told supporters her side is leading, but stressed the need to wait for the final result. Kristersson, who has governed since 2022, said he would consider possible parliamentary combinations once the count is complete. The election centered on Kristersson's promise of ministerial posts to the Sweden Democrats if the right retained power.

The Sweden Democrats, which entered parliament in 2010 and became the second-largest party four years ago, acknowledge past ties to neo-Nazi and white-supremacist movements but claim they have since expelled extremists. Early results showed the Sweden Democrats lost roughly three percentage points from their 2022 share, falling from second to third place and recording their first support decline since entering parliament.

This setback complicated the right bloc's efforts to secure a governing majority. For Andersson, a narrow opposition victory would not guarantee an easy return to power, as her support would come from various parties with differing views on taxation, migration, and nuclear power. Sweden's constitutional system allows minority governments, but any candidate for prime minister must survive a parliamentary vote where a majority cannot oppose them.

The election highlighted a divided country over the direction taken during Kristersson's four-year tenure. His government tightened asylum and residency rules, expanded expulsions, and linked welfare policy more closely to integration requirements, arguing tougher measures were needed to curb organized crime and restore public confidence.

Government supporters pointed to a decline in shootings, which fell from 391 in 2022 to 158 in 2025. Opposition parties criticized the government's approach, arguing it had placed pressure on civil liberties and Sweden's liberal political traditions. Regardless of the outcome, the election is unlikely to alter Sweden's overall foreign policy, with main parties supporting continued assistance for Ukraine and Sweden's membership in NATO.