Super El Niño set to reshape US winter

A powerful El Niño weather pattern has intensified to unprecedented levels, potentially reshaping the upcoming winter across the United States, according to recent reports. This "super" El Niño is currently stronger than ever recorded during this time of year, with forecasters predicting it could continue to strengthen.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) measures El Niño's strength using the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which tracks temperature anomalies in a specific region of the Pacific Ocean. The latest RONI reading stands at 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, surpassing the threshold for a "very strong" category and earning the "super" label.

This rapid and record-breaking build-up follows a period of weakening La Niña conditions earlier this year. The previous record holder for rapid transition was the 1982-83 El Niño event. Forecasters estimate there's a 75% chance this El Niño will peak as the strongest on record since 1950 by year-end, and a 69% chance it will exceed all other El Niño events since 1950 during the October-to-December window.

The effects of this super El Niño have already been felt globally this summer. In the Atlantic, it has generated extreme wind shear, delaying the season's first hurricane to a record-long period. In the Pacific, storm activity has surged, with 16 named storms forming, including two Category 5 hurricanes, well above average. Indonesia is grappling with widespread wildfires, a common occurrence during El Niño years. Overall global temperatures are also rising, with August 2026 ranking as the hottest on record.

While the peak of this El Niño's influence will likely come during the winter months, its impacts on the US climate are still unfolding.