Monsoon’s retreat in sight, but rain not over yet: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the Southwest Monsoon will begin retreating from Northwest India around September 19, a slight shift from the typical date of September 17. Last year, the monsoon withdrawal began on September 14. IMD indicates conditions are increasingly favorable for the monsoon's exit from certain areas of west Rajasthan around September 19. However, prior to the monsoon's departure, the region is expected to experience thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds.

The weather disturbance is anticipated to be associated with a low-pressure system over north Gujarat. Meanwhile, adjoining parts of Rajasthan will likely remain under monsoon influence for the next two to three days. The Met department expects rainfall over western Rajasthan until September 16, and monsoon activity to persist over eastern Rajasthan until September 20.

Widespread rainfall has also been predicted over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Punjab until September 18. This monsoon season has fallen short of expectations nationwide, with El Niño conditions exacerbating the situation. All-India monthly rainfall was 35.4 percent below average in June, followed by a 1 percent surplus in July and a 13.8 percent deficit in August. September has already seen a 15 percent rainfall shortfall.

As the four-month monsoon season nears its end, IMD rainfall data reveals that nearly 43 percent of the country remains rainfall deficient. The monsoon is projected to conclude with significantly below-average rainfall across much of the southern peninsula. Other regions to likely record substantial deficits include Goa (-16 percent), Haryana (-23 percent), Punjab (-40 percent), Bihar (-35 percent), Rajasthan (-25 percent), Arunachal Pradesh (-42 percent), Manipur (-42 percent), Assam (-25 percent), and Meghalaya (-59 percent).

In contrast, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are anticipated to deviate minimally from normal rainfall patterns despite the monsoon's retreat.