Lula and Bolsonaro in dead heat ahead of Brazil vote, polls show

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro appear statistically tied in new polls ahead of Brazil's election, as a crisis within the Supreme Court adds uncertainty to the October vote. According to a BTG/Nexus survey, Lula would lead the run-off with 47 percent support, matching Bolsonaro's 46 percent, though the margin of error leaves the race essentially in a statistical tie.

Another Quaest poll, published later, showed Bolsonaro slightly ahead at 42 percent to Lula's 40 percent, also within the two percentage point margin of error. A recent series of revelations linking jailed Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro to Supreme Court justices has heightened the race just weeks before the October 4 first-round vote.

In response, the court's president unsealed investigations into Vorcaro, who is accused of money-laundering, corruption, and tax crimes after receiving funding from Flávio Bolsonaro for a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. However, Flávio Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing. The crisis presents risks for Lula, who is seen as a close ally of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, also under scrutiny over alleged ties to Vorcaro.

Additionally, Lula faces economic slowdown concerns and corruption allegations against his son. A separate Datafolha survey released on Friday showed the contest closely matched, with Lula having a slight numerical edge. The BTG/Nexus survey interviewed 2,003 people on September 11-13, while the Quaest survey surveyed 2,004 people on September 10-13.