Kedah Umno’s PAS-only approach driven by sense of threat, says analyst

An analyst suggests that Umno's focus on negotiating solely with PAS in Kedah is likely a response to the party's recent electoral losses. Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia points out that Umno would need to regain control of Bakar Arang, Sidam, and Kota Darul Aman, all of which were won by the People's Justice Party (PKR) in the last state election.

Fauzi notes that Umno's belittling of Wawasan does not change the reality that the opposition party has been endorsed by the Perikatan Nasional (PN) leadership. Wawasan is expected to contest for seats previously held by Bersatu, and Umno must acknowledge its diminished position in Kedah and nationwide, where Malay voters are no longer as inclined to support it.

Meanwhile, Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia predicts that Umno and Wawasan will compete for the same voter base - Malays who do not strongly back PAS. Wawasan is expected to prioritize these seats and seek priority as a component party within the PN. This situation could further strain the Perikatan Nasional coalition, given that previous rifts have arisen from seat negotiations and partner choices.

If PAS opts for Umno without including Wawasan, the latter might struggle to accept such a decision. These challenges highlight that the Perikatan Nasional's internal dynamics are still unresolved, as demonstrated by the recent split between Muafakat Nasional, which occurred when PAS chose Bersatu over Umno. Kedah Umno's information chief, Shaiful Hazizy Zainol Abidin, announced that the state chapter would engage in discussions with PAS regarding political cooperation, but would not negotiate with PN as a coalition.

This stance stems from his dismissal of PN as a "cat," a term he attributed to Kedah Menteri Besar Sanusi Nor, who serves as PAS's election director. At a PAS muktamar, Sanusi likened PAS to an "elephant" and Wawasan to a "cat" that is just starting out, emphasizing PAS's growth and the importance of not following the lead of a smaller party.