Fitch lifts Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8%

Fitch Solutions has significantly raised its forecast for Ghana's 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, highlighting a stronger-than-projected trade performance during the first half of the year. The investment firm's research team reported Ghana recorded a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus in the first half of 2026, notably higher than the US$700 million average from the previous decade's first halves.

This impressive performance was primarily driven by thriving gold exports and heightened crude oil shipments. The firm's initial expectations had been set at 5.2% of GDP, but they have now revised their forecast upwards to 7.8% of GDP following this robust trading year. Fitch Solutions expects the surplus to lessen in 2027 but anticipates Ghana will still maintain a substantial positive balance.

Their outlook underscores the ongoing significance of gold and other commodity exports to Ghana's foreign exchange earnings and overall external position, noting that the surplus's sustainability will be contingent on global commodity prices and export performance.