Fitch lifts Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8%

Fitch Solutions has significantly increased its projection for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of the country's GDP, marking a sharp contrast to the previous estimate of 5.2%. This upward revision is primarily due to a more robust-than-anticipated trade performance observed in the first half of 2026. According to the research team at Fitch Ratings, a division of Fitch Ratings, Ghana recorded a notable merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion during the same period, a figure far exceeding the average US$700 million recorded in the first halves of the previous decade.

This impressive performance is largely attributed to a surge in gold exports and a rise in crude oil shipments. Fitch Solutions' reassessment of the surplus forecast superior to its initial expectations, leading to the upward adjustment of the current account surplus projection for 2026. The firm asserts, "As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously."

Despite this optimistic outlook, Fitch Solutions predicts a decline in the surplus for 2027, although it maintains that Ghana will still operate with a substantial positive balance. The report underscores the continued significance of gold and other commodity exports to Ghana's foreign exchange earnings and overall external position, while also highlighting that the sustainability of the surplus is contingent upon global commodity prices and export performance.