Chinese defence forum set to open amid roiling regional tensions

China's annual defence forum is set to open in Beijing this week, amid heightened tensions in the region over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and concerns about U.S. commitments to Asia. Defence Minister Dong Jun is expected to address the three-day Xiangshan Forum on Tuesday, calling for closer international cooperation within a multipolar world but likely also issuing coded critiques of the U.S. and its allies, according to diplomats and analysts.

Hundreds of military officials, diplomats, and scholars from dozens of countries are anticipated to attend the tightly choreographed Chinese alternative to Singapore's more open Shangri-La Dialogue. While some Asian envoys and analysts believe overt criticism of the U.S. and its Western partners could be softened due to President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to Washington, Japan could be a softer target given recent tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.

The forum will also provide an opportunity for China to highlight its concerns about Japan's wartime past and alleged "remilitarization," noted Singapore-based Chinese security scholar James Char. Taiwan, which recently conducted military and civil defence drills to prepare for a potential Chinese invasion, does not participate in the forum or other major international gatherings. Neither country recognizes the other, and Beijing considers the democratic island its territory.

Xi Jinping has emphasized the need for greater representation of Global South countries in international affairs, as recently stated at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Western nations tend to send lower-level delegations, while regional countries, seeking to balance relations with China and the U.S., often send ministers.

The U.S. delegation is expected to be led by Cynthia Carras, the Pentagon's principal director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. Vietnam, a neighbour and rival in the South China Sea dispute, will be represented by Defence Minister Phan Van Giang, while Malaysia will be attended by Deputy Defence Minister Adly Zahari.

Doubts about both China's and the U.S.'s security commitments create an opening for Beijing to argue for regional defence management by Asian countries. However, China's assertive actions in the region, particularly in the South China Sea, make it difficult for China to capitalize on this opportunity. Recent corruption purges within China's military may also influence the forum as foreign delegations assess their potential impact on the leadership, providing an opportunity for future PLA leaders to meet with foreign defence delegates before the ruling Communist Party's congress next year.