Chinese defence forum set to open amid roiling regional tensions

Beijing is set to host its annual defence forum, the Xiangshan Forum, amid mounting tensions in its regional neighbourhood over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and uncertainties regarding US commitments to Asia. Defence Minister Dong Jun is anticipated to open the three-day event on Tuesday, advocating for broader international collaboration within a multipolar world while likely incorporating subtle criticisms of the US and its allies.

Hundreds of military officers, diplomats, and scholars from numerous countries, including Japan, Vietnam, and Malaysia, are expected to attend the forum, which serves as a Chinese alternative to the more informal Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Diplomats and analysts suggest that any pointed Chinese criticism of the US and its Western allies may be softened due to President Xi Jinping's forthcoming visit to Washington later this month to meet President Donald Trump.

James Char, a Chinese security scholar based in Singapore, anticipates the host will also target Japan's perceived "remilitarization," as well as its historical wartime actions. The forum will also address Taiwan's military drills in preparation for a potential Chinese invasion, of which neither the island's government nor China recognizes the other. Taiwan does not participate in the forum or most significant international gatherings.

Western nations typically send low-ranking delegations to the forum, while regional countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia might send ministers to navigate their relationships with China and the US. The United States delegation is expected to be led by Cynthia Carras, the Pentagon's principal director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.

Doubts about US security commitments in Asia create an opportunity for Beijing to argue that regional defense should be managed by Asian countries. However, China's assertive behavior in the region, particularly in the South China Sea, limits its capacity to capitalize on this opportunity. East Asia politics and security expert Patricia Kim warns that many Asian countries remain skeptical of China's increasingly aggressive behavior, especially in the South China Sea.

The forum will precede the upcoming Communist Party congress in 2022, which will solidify the new leadership of the Central Military Commission, the top command body of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Currently, the commission has two out of seven seats filled, one of which is held by Xi, the ultimate head of the military. This forum provides foreign defense delegates with a chance to engage with potential members of the next generation of PLA leaders.