As Trump’s America goes it alone on AI, middle powers must find a workaround

During his recent European trip, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney proposed the idea of forming an "alliance of middle powers" to set their own global agenda and impact. This concept, which calls for countries beyond China and the US to take the lead, gained traction when a dozen states, including Britain, Canada, and France, pledged to boycott trade with Israel's settlements in the West Bank.

The move demonstrated that middle powers can coordinate at a wide level and adopt clear common measures, which can effectively target specific issues.

Carney's call for this alliance emerged from his belief that the "old order" – particularly the dominance of the US-led world order – is unraveling. This sentiment was reinforced by US President Donald Trump's recent actions, which have angered AI industry leaders like Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman, and SpaceXAI's Elon Musk. Trump's stance on artificial superintelligence (ASI) control has led to a growing concern that the US is no longer interested in coordinating with its allies on this issue.

European countries are actively pursuing opportunities to carve out a position of strength in AI, as much of the industry and its frontier development are concentrated outside their borders. The UK, France, and the Netherlands are all significant players in AI development, with notable firms such as Mistral, ASML, and Nvidia adding to the competitive landscape.

By focusing on their individual strengths and pooling their resources, middle powers can protect their advantages and project them together, creating a trusted network that promotes peace, security, and economic opportunities.

One of the key proposals Carney is bringing to Europe is the idea of a "Defence Bank," which would fund the growth of the AI industry and ensure that data remains an asset that can maintain full access to top models. This initiative aligns with the growing concerns among middle powers about their dependence on US or Chinese giants, which leaves them vulnerable in the AI race. By working together, these countries aim to secure their advantages and maintain control over critical technologies.