AI, Redistribution, and the Size of the Pie
Anthropic’s economic team, including Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, have a valuable new paper, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI. They make their assumptions explicit and provide a scenario explorer that lets you change them. How capable will AI become? How quickly will firms adopt it? Will it augment workers or automate their tasks? You can […] The post AI, Redistribution, and the Size of…
Anthropic's team of economists, led by Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, released a detailed paper exploring the potential impacts of transformative AI on the economy. This paper, titled "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI," allows users to manipulate key assumptions and observe the implications for growth, wages, and unemployment.
The paper highlights that even if AI takes on many tasks, leading to a 32.4% increase in GDP by 2030 compared to a world without AI, workers could still earn as much as they would have otherwise, thanks to a falling labor share. This finding is central to the author's own work, "How Much Redistribution Will AI Require?" The paper updates the original results to a 10-year horizon and presents them on a redistribution graph.
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