Trump: Ukraine should stop hitting Russia’s energy sector because it is causing diesel shortages

Ukrainian Defense Forces have reclaimed control near Lyman, halting Russia's Donbas strategy, according to a Sept. 12 Institute for the Study of War analysis. Ukrainian forces have successfully thwarted Russian advances since late 2025 up until 2026. Since March, Ukraine has nearly eliminated Russian territorial gains and executed counteroffensives in Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman sectors.

This has prevented Russian troops from infiltrating Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, allowed Ukraine to regain lost positions in Kupyansk, and destroyed a major Russian salient near Lyman that threatened Slovyansk and other fortified cities in Donetsk Oblast. The Lyman operation is particularly significant, as it enabled Ukrainian forces to disrupt Russian plans to encircle key Donbas cities from two directions - Lyman and Dobropillya.

Russia may now have to adjust its operational plans on the southern and northern flanks of the fortress belt, especially if Ukrainian forces push Russian troops back to the Zherebets River and establish a stable defensive line there. Russia might redeploy surviving units from the Lyman area to other sectors or double down on efforts to seize Lyman and revive plans for encircling key cities in Donetsk Oblast from the north.

However, Russian forces have not taken Lyman since the fall of 2022, and are unlikely to successfully launch large-scale infantry or mechanized assaults in the near future. Ukrainian battlefield successes have reportedly prompted Russian commanders to pressure President Vladimir Putin to launch a large-scale conscription campaign to regain the initiative.

It remains unclear how such a move would impact the battlefield dynamic given Ukraine's current advantages. Ukraine launched its counteroffensive operation near Lyman in Donetsk Oblast as early as May, according to OSINT analyst Clément Molin, who reported that Ukrainian forces liberated villages, eliminated the Russian salient, and pushed invading forces back across the Zherebets River.

Foreign OSINT analysts also claim Ukraine liberated "hundreds of kilometers" of territory on the Lyman front. ISW noted that Russian military bloggers have increasingly criticized the practice of providing false information about the front situation.