Maariv pollster analyzes election race, Likud challenges, and threshold battles
Dr. Menachem Lazar analyzed the latest Maariv poll, saying smaller parties remain in a close battle for survival while Likud faces challenges from within its own political bloc.
Maariv pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar analyzed the latest election poll published on Friday, shedding light on the challenges faced by smaller parties in securing enough support to enter the Knesset. According to Lazar, three parties are currently in the danger zone: Am Yisrael, Reservists and Economic Party, and Religious Zionism and Zehut list. While Am Yisrael is passing the electoral threshold by a small margin, the other two are not, both by fractions of a percentage point.
Lazar noted that Benny Gantz, chairman of the Blue and White party and former defense minister, is still the only smaller list figure to receive more than 1% support, but he remains far from the electoral threshold. Lazar emphasized that among the other submitted lists, none is currently obtaining a significant number of votes.
He also discussed the stability of the Zionist opposition parties, stating that the current picture is clear, with an even number of parties that will prevent wasted votes through surplus-vote agreements. Lazar further highlighted that the merger of Hadash, Ta al, and Balad has not lived up to its potential, while Ra am, led by Mansour Abbas, has maintained stability at five seats.
Addressing voter turnout among Arab citizens, Lazar suggested that it could significantly impact the strength of Arab parties. With Arab citizens making up about 21% of Israel's population, he said that if their voting rate is similar to that of Jewish society, Arab parties could reach 17 seats. However, Lazar noted that voter turnout among Arab citizens currently appears stagnant.
Lazar concluded by stating that voter uncertainty will continue to decline after the holidays, with more Israelis making up their minds on which party to support. Haredi parties, including United Torah Judaism and Shas, face internal challenges, with United Torah Judaism experiencing internal conflict between its hassidic and Lithuanian factions, while Shas has failed to create new momentum, continuing to stagnate at seven seats.
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