Where have all the Atlantic hurricanes gone? El Nino might bring record slow storm season

This year has seen an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, thanks to a powerful El Nino event that has created conditions unfavorable for storm formation. As of this week, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed since the start of the season, which is typically the peak period for hurricane development. Only five relatively weak and short-lived tropical storms have occurred so far.

Meteorologists have recorded the longest stretch without a hurricane since the 1950s, when satellite monitoring began. Overall, hurricane activity, measured by the number of storms, their strength, and duration, is at a record low since 1950. Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane expert, observed that Atlantic storm activity is currently only 7% of normal for this time of year.

While El Nino typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic, warm ocean temperatures usually provide the energy needed for storm development. However, the cooler-than-normal Atlantic waters, combined with high pressure and strong winds, are preventing storms from forming. This phenomenon is unique to the Atlantic, as El Nino typically enhances tropical cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific.

In the Atlantic, record-strong wind shear is tearing apart potential storms before they can form, while dry air and downward-moving air also inhibit storm development. Despite these conditions, hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel warned that the Atlantic waters, while warm, are several months behind the atmosphere in feeling the full effects of El Nino, which could lead to an unusually busy hurricane season next year.