Party Like It’s 2016?

IOWA CITY, Iowa - September 10: Quarterback C.J. Beathard of the Iowa Hawkeyes runs up the field on a keeper during a game against the Iowa State Cyclones on September 10, 2016 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. This annual rivalry game is steeped in tradition and has always been an exciting event for fans. The Cy-Hawk series has been going on for 73 years, with the Hawkeyes leading the all-time series 46-25.

However, Iowa hasn't officially won the game since 2021, and they haven't won it at home since 2018. Over the past few years, the games have been decided by a small margin, with each team winning by 10 or fewer points. Notably, the last time either team won by more than 10 points was in 2016, when the Hawkeyes prevailed 42-3. This season, we've been examining the similarities to that 2016 team.

That year marked the beginning of Matt Campbell's tenure as Iowa's head coach, and now, in 2026, it's the start of Jimmy Rogers' era after Campbell left for Penn State. In 2016, Iowa was favored by an impressive 15.5 points, which has made the fans particularly confident this time around. Our community survey showed that 81% of Hawkeyes fans believe the team will cover the current 13.5-point spread.

Our staff is optimistic as well, projecting an average final score of 30-13, which is a significant victory for the Hawkeyes. While Iowa has been favored by more than two touchdowns just a dozen times in the history of the series, they have achieved this feat with a 10-2 record and a 7-5 record against the spread. Despite Iowa's strong history in this matchup, they have only won five games by at least two touchdowns.

However, the tradition of sweeping victories is evident, with Iowa winning by at least that margin 16 times since 1983. The key to Iowa's success in these games seems to be their strong defense and balanced offense. In 2016, the Cyclones had only one turnover, which proved costly. The Cyclones' offense struggled, only accumulating 303 total yards and facing pressure from Iowa's defense.

For this year's game, Iowa's defense is expected to dominate, as they did in week one, where they allowed just 120 yards and no points to Southeast Missouri State. Meanwhile, Iowa's offense will rely on dynamic players like Kamari Moulton, DJ Vonnahme, and Matt VandeBerg to outmaneuver the Cyclones' defense. By focusing on stopping the run and capitalizing on turnovers, the Hawkeyes can recreate their 2016 magic and secure another dominant victory.