Nervepirrende rentethriller: – Kan vippe det

Nordea's macro and currency strategist, Sara Midtgaard, believes that there will not be an increase in interest rates in September, but rather a postponement until November. The decision on the interest rate will be made by central bank chief Ida Wolden Bache and the rest of the monetary committee on Thursday, September 24th. Economists have been very uncertain about whether the Norwegian central bank will raise the policy rate to 4.5 percent or keep it at the current 4.25 percent.

The central bank's goal is to achieve an inflation rate that over time reaches 2 percent, combined with low unemployment. On Thursday, the Statistics Office released inflation figures showing that price growth in August was 3.3 percent higher than the same month the previous year. Even though price growth exceeded the target, it was lower than what the central bank had predicted.

Midtgaard suggests that the central bank will likely keep the interest rate unchanged in September and wait for new inflation data, before making a decision in November. A potential factor before the September meeting is the exchange rate of the Norwegian krone, which has strengthened more than expected since the central bank's meeting in June.

This strengthening could potentially dampen price growth. The krone's rise is partly due to oil price increases, and it is unclear how the central bank will handle this, as an oil price increase can also affect inflation in the medium term. Inflation in Norway has been significantly higher than the target for several years, with core inflation, which excludes energy prices and tax changes, reaching around 3 percent, down from its peak in October 2024.

Midtgaard believes that the central bank may start to feel frustrated about not being able to bring down price growth to the target. Therefore, they may decide to raise the interest rate, but it is unclear if it will be in September or November, but they believe it will happen sometime in 2026, reaching a policy rate of 4.5 percent.

The "close call" of the interest rate decision at the end of September indicates that the central bank had previously indicated that the rate would be raised to above 4.5 percent by the end of the year. However, due to price growth falling short of expectations for two consecutive months in the summer, the central bank has not raised rates yet.

The regional network report, which is the final piece of the puzzle before the next monetary meeting, is crucial. It examines factors such as capacity utilization among Norwegian businesses, wage expectations, price expectations, and expected activity in the next quarter. Nora Vie Holm of Handelsbanken Capital Markets also highlights the importance of the regional network report.

They expect continued growth in the Norwegian economy but at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Specifically, they expect Norwegian companies' expectations for production growth in the next quarter to be somewhat lower, which would support the view that capacity utilization is starting to decrease earlier than the central bank had anticipated.

The regional network report also discusses wage expectations, and if they decrease further below what the central bank has been expecting, it would isolate a move towards a lower interest rate. However, the main scenario remains an interest rate hike in September due to price growth remaining above target.