How will the US-Iran war end?

The US-Iran war appears unlikely to end anytime soon, with both sides deeply entrenched in their views. The US Treasury's recent economic blockade against Iran, aimed at cutting off trading partners, has instead contributed to the escalation of hostilities rather than bringing about a resolution. This situation is further complicated by China's unwillingness to cooperate, making it the only influential third party capable of making a difference.

Hardliners on both sides are unlikely to yield, with Iran showing no signs of surrender and the US refraining from a full-scale invasion. China, while sensitive to the economic fallout from the conflict, has maintained its reserves of critical minerals and continues to trade with Iran, undermining any prospects of decisive US pressure.

A ceasefire and a memorandum of understanding were reached in June, but these have yet to translate into lasting peace as both sides continue to limit activities in the Strait of Hormuz. The current crisis has led to a temporary slowdown in China's economic growth, primarily due to its reliance on oil imports from the Strait of Hormuz, which has now shifted towards renewables and electric vehicles. However, this development may not significantly impact China's overall economic interests.

The broader Middle East is expected to adjust to a new reality with reduced oil and gas exports from the region. While this poses a cost for oil-exporting countries, the long-term impact may be a decreased sensitivity to disruptions in the Middle East. Regional players, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, are increasingly relying on alternative alliances and economic incentives to secure their interests.

Ultimately, the only viable path to resolving the US-Iran conflict lies in China's involvement, through increased economic integration in the region and addressing Iran's nuclear program within a regional framework led by China. Although US President Donald Trump will visit China at the end of September, the outcome remains uncertain, as both nations must grapple with the complex web of economic, political, and security concerns to achieve a lasting resolution.