How will the US-Iran war end?

The US-Iran war may persist for a considerable duration due to the lack of a powerful third party willing to impose peace and the entrenchment of hardliners on both sides. The US Treasury's economic blockade, intended to isolate Iran, has intensified the conflict rather than bringing it to an end. China, the only significant third party with enough influence to make a difference, has been reluctant to cooperate.

Despite a ceasefire and a memorandum of understanding in June, the conflict has continued, with Iran limiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the US maintaining restrictions on Iranian vessels. China's substantial oil reserves and its shift towards renewable energy have made it less sensitive to the current crisis, which may not contribute to instability in the Middle East as a means to contain China.

The broader Middle East is experiencing a transition, with the world economy adjusting to reduced oil and gas exports from the region. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are reevaluating their reliance on US security and exploring relationships with other regional allies and Iran. Addressing the nuclear issue and integrating Iran's program into a regional civilian electricity production supply chain is crucial for a long-term solution.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to Washington may provide an opportunity for the US and Iran to engage in broader discussions, but China may choose to observe and await further developments.