Low turnout, coalition politics hover over 2026 local elections
Polling ahead of South Africa’s 2026 local government elections points to further ANC losses, stronger DA support and coalition governments in many municipalities, while turnout could fall to about 42%.
The 2026 local government elections in South Africa are set to take place on November 2026, encompassing 257 individual elections for each municipal authority in the country. These elections are expected to involve coalition politics due to the complex nature of voting for both ward candidates and parties' proportional representation candidates.
Private companies, such as Ipsos and the Social Research Foundation (SRF), conduct polling exercises to predict election results, although these predictions come with a margin of error due to potential deviations from the final election outcomes.
The EFF and MKP are likely to maintain their positions from previous elections, with no significant changes anticipated. However, the ANC and DA may experience different trends. The ANC is expected to face a decline in its support levels, potentially dropping into the low 30s percent, while the DA's support is projected to rise to the mid-20s percent.
Voter turnout is a critical factor, traditionally lower in local elections due to lower engagement from young voters. Ipsos' poll suggests a turnout of approximately 42%, which would be a disappointment for the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) that promoted online voter registration.
Geographically, the Western Cape and Limpopo are predicted to have the highest voter turnout, while the North West, Northern Cape, and Free State, along with Buffalo City, Tshwane, and eThekwini metros, are anticipated to have the lowest. The ANC is expected to perform best in provinces such as Limpopo, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and KZN, with Mangaung, Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg, Buffalo City, and Cape Town being the top metros.
The DA is predicted to do well in the Western Cape, Free State, Northern Cape, and Gauteng, with Cape Town, Nelson Mandela Bay, Mangaung, and Tshwane as the leading metros.
The MKP is anticipated to fare well in KZN, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga, as well as in the metros of eThekwini, Ekurhuleni, and Johannesburg. The EFF, on the other hand, faces a critical election period, with expected best performances in Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Eastern Cape, Free State, and Gauteng, and top metros including Buffalo City, Mangaung, Cape Town, and Ekurhuleni.
The predicted results and potential local coalitions indicate that coalition governments will be inevitable at the local level, emphasizing the importance of the Coalition Bill amendment before the election.
Written by urgent.news from IOL's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
