Lee rating drops as Hormuz deployment opposition grows

President Lee Jae Myung's approval rating has plummeted to an all-time low amid mounting opposition to sending South Korean military assets to the Strait of Hormuz, heightening pressure on his administration while Washington urges Seoul to bolster maritime security. A recent National Barometer Survey revealed 43 percent of respondents approved of Lee's performance, a seven percentage point decrease from two weeks prior, while 48 percent disapproved—this marks the first time disapproval surpassed approval in the biweekly poll since his inauguration in June 2025.

Opposition to deploying military assets, including maritime patrol aircraft and support ships, to Hormuz surged to 45 percent, compared to 36 percent who backed the move. This opposition was most pronounced among respondents in their 40s and 50s, and among supporters of Lee's ruling Democratic Party, highlighting the domestic political ramifications of any military contribution.

Seoul has consistently maintained that no final decision has been made, with senior presidential secretary Seong Ghi-hong stating the government is "cautiously assessing" the situation. The Defence Ministry's recent inspection team to the United Arab Emirates returned on Thursday, emphasizing the mission as an assessment rather than preparation for deployment.

National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac also affirmed that discussions between Lee and French President Emmanuel Macron centered on potential contributions to maritime security and freedom of navigation, rather than an agreement to deploy troops. The debate escalated as US President Donald Trump encouraged allies to aid in securing Hormuz during the ongoing conflict with Iran, publicly criticizing Seoul's reluctance to support US efforts.

Seoul denies any imposed deadline for deployment, stating it is exploring practical ways to assist with peace, stability, and free navigation while weighing military readiness, legal obligations, and the risks of deeper involvement in the conflict. Deploying troops would necessitate approval from the National Assembly, where Lee's Democratic Party enjoys a majority, providing procedural flexibility but not eliminating the political costs of acting against a significant portion of public opinion, including party loyalists.

A separate Hangil Research survey from September 5 to 7 found 47.1 percent opposed deployment and 43 percent supported it, a difference within the poll's margin of error. Opposition intensified to 55.5 percent among Democratic Party supporters and 62.4 percent among self-described liberals. Lee's overall ratings have also suffered domestically, with a Realmeter survey released on Monday placing his approval at 37.4 percent, a 1.5 percentage point drop from the previous week and the eighth consecutive weekly decline.

The pollster attributed the decline to disputes over a cabinet reshuffle and housing policy changes rather than the Hormuz issue alone. Gallup Korea reported Lee's approval at 40 percent, with 51 percent disapproving. Negative views of Lee most often stemmed from real estate policy, economic concerns, livelihoods, and dissatisfaction with personnel appointments.

The Hormuz issue adds a foreign-policy dilemma at a critical juncture. Dependent on imported energy, South Korea faces heightened concerns over strait disruptions, amplifying the importance of maintaining open shipping routes. Amid US-Iran tensions, Iran has warned Seoul against military involvement, perceiving it as aligning with US military actions.

Reduced shipping through Hormuz has intensified the strategic significance of preserving open waterways, prompting South Korea's direct economic interest in restoring safer passage without further entanglement in hostilities.