Iran says Gulf states to meet in Oman to discuss safe Hormuz shipping routes

The United States has made progress in loosening Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously shutting down Iran's oil exports, contributing to the country's economic decline. However, the conflict initiated by the U.S. and Israel in February remains unresolved, and the stalemate is costly for both parties. The June agreement reached between the two sides quickly fell apart, and since then, no diplomatic progress has been made.

Low-level fighting continues, and the U.S. lacks a clear exit strategy. Despite the economic pressure, Iran has not shown signs of civil unrest, and its leaders might resort to military escalation if cornered. Iran's allies in Yemen have intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia, pushing oil prices back up.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared above $100 this week, and diesel, crucial for transport and agriculture, hit a record high. These price surges may fuel inflation. President Donald Trump acknowledged that gas prices are likely to remain high during the midterm congressional elections. Middle East expert Mona Yacoubian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that Iran is not showing any signs of backing down, demonstrating a willingness to fight back and escalate wherever possible.

The war, intended to be brief, is far from over, and no clear victor has emerged. Iran's leverage wanes as its oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, with the American military facilitating increased exports by Gulf countries.

In recent weeks, Iran's oil exports plummeted from 1.85 million barrels a day last spring to around 255,000 barrels in August. Exports of non-Iranian oil rose from 300,000 barrels a day during the war to 8.4 million in September, and with alternative routes, they reached 10.8 million barrels. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlighted these figures, stating that the country is likely exporting two-thirds or more of its preconflict flows.

However, the increased flow relies on a major U.S. deployment in the strait, straining the military's resources. The costly war has already consumed more than $37.5 billion of U.S. taxpayer money, resulted in 18 U.S. service member deaths, and may impact Republicans in the November elections. Iran continues to attack ships in the strait, drawing limited U.S. strikes on its coastal areas and retaliating with missile attacks on Arab countries hosting U.S. forces.

While Trump dismissed the conflict as "small potatoes," the U.S. supply of sophisticated interceptors is under strain, potentially prompting Iran to escalate attacks or resort to regional proxies. The Iran-backed Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi oil facilities, disrupting oil exports and a vital trade route through the Bab el-Mandeb, leading to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

Iran has signaled its intention to escalate further rather than capitulate to growing U.S. pressure.