Housing, a Key Space for Millions of Families to Face El Niño in Latin America

The El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to strengthen and become very strong in the coming months, could have significant impacts on millions of families across Latin America and the Caribbean. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts above-normal temperatures and significant changes in precipitation patterns, with some regions facing drought and others heavy rainfall and flooding.

In Latin America, the effects of El Niño vary across territories. Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of northern South America could experience drought, while the Pacific coast of South America and the Southern Cone may see an increase in precipitation. These conditions could lead to extreme heat, wildfires, food insecurity, and impacts on livelihoods.

In Colombia, the government has declared a national disaster situation for an initial period of 12 months due to the risks associated with El Niño. Authorities expect a high probability of the phenomenon strengthening during the second half of 2026 and reaching very strong intensity.

On the Colombian Pacific coast, sea surface temperature anomalies are close to 5°C above average, while in Ecuador, authorities are anticipating both excess rainfall and flooding in coastal regions and water deficits in the Inter-Andean and Amazon regions. This demonstrates how the same climate event can have opposite risks within a country.

In the Southern Cone, higher probabilities of precipitation in parts of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil could benefit agricultural activities but also increase the risk of flooding and infrastructure damage.

In Central America, the Dry Corridor, which crosses parts of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, faces a 70% probability of below-average rainfall, affecting around 10.5 million people. The Caribbean is already experiencing drought conditions, with more than 60% of Puerto Rico under extreme or severe drought, leading to water rationing in 26 municipalities.

Housing plays a crucial role in how families face and recover from El Niño. Around 120 million people live in informal settlements in the region, many in homes located in flood-prone, landslide-prone, or heat-exposed areas. The physical conditions of a home, its location, access to basic services, and the possibility of improvements can determine a family's ability to cope with and recover from a climate event.

Preparation can begin before an event occurs. Simple measures like roof and drainage maintenance, identifying risks, reinforcing vulnerable elements, ensuring safe water access, and incorporating climate adaptation criteria into new construction and improvements can help mitigate the impacts of El Niño on families' living conditions.