China's Crude Imports Set to Hold at 7.2 Million Bpd in September

China anticipates maintaining its crude oil imports at around 7.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, mirroring the volume from August. This holds steady as crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel once again. According to Kpler’s vessel-tracking data, Chinese crude imports for September are expected to stay similar to those in August.

The crude cargoes reaching China in September were purchased at prices well under $100 per barrel, yet the slow recovery of Chinese imports from their June lows hints at additional upward pressure on crude oil prices.

Chinese refiners have recently focused on replenishing crude supplies as prices hovered in the $80s per barrel. Chinese crude oil imports increased for the second straight month in August, with refiners turning to alternative non-Middle Eastern supply sources and increasing overseas fuel shipments due to eased export restrictions.

In August, China imported 37.93 million tons or 8.93 million bpd of crude oil, marking a 6.2% rise from July. This was an improvement from June’s decade-low of 7.1 million bpd, though still 23.4% lower compared to the same period last year.

China had reduced its total crude oil imports to a decade-low in June, following a three-month period of very low imports due to high prices and limited Middle Eastern supply. Beijing had accumulated approximately 1.4 billion barrels of crude before the conflict, allowing it to cut its crude purchases by 4.4 million bpd compared to the 2025 average.

Chinese imports started to rebound in July, and this trend continued into August, as Middle Eastern flows increased, Chinese refiners increased Russian ESPO grade purchases, and explored exotic and rare supply options like Argentina.