Analysts: Trade surplus to narrow as oil prices moderate

Nigeria's record merchandise trade surplus is projected to decrease in the second half of 2026 as global crude oil prices decrease from their recent highs, according to trade analysts at Coronation Asset Management. This is revealed in the firm's Q2 2026 Trade Statistics Report, based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The report highlighted that the nation's trade surplus reached a record N12.60tn in Q2 2026, marking a 101.32% year-on-year increase from N6.26tn in Q2 2025 and a 66.85% quarter-on-quarter rise from N7.55tn in Q1 2026. The significant improvement in the external position was mainly driven by a surge in global crude oil prices following supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Export earnings rose to N27.02tn in Q2 2026, with petroleum-related products making up 86.2% of the total export basket. Crude oil remained the main foreign currency earner at N12.91tn, aided by Brent crude prices reaching $99.44 per barrel during the quarter and a 10.9% quarter-on-quarter rise in domestic production volumes to 1.53m barrels per day.

However, total imports increased by 5.91% quarter-on-quarter to N14.42tn, fueled by higher demand for manufactured goods, raw materials, and agricultural commodities. Despite the strong performance in Q2, macroeconomists cautioned that the external balance remains vulnerable to international oil market fluctuations and geopolitical factors.

Coronation analysts stressed that the US Energy Information Administration predicts Brent crude to average around $85 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $78 per barrel in Q4 2026, which, coupled with a broader recovery in import demand, could temper the trade balance. The report also noted that structural challenges persist in the non-oil sector, with agricultural exports declining by 31.51% quarter-on-quarter to N802.99bn, while total non-oil exports reached N3.73tn.

India, Spain, the Netherlands, the United States, and Togo were identified as Nigeria's top export partners, while China remained the primary source of imports, accounting for 41.02% of the total import value.