Analysts: Trade surplus to narrow as oil prices moderate
Nigeria’s record trade surplus is expected to narrow in H2 2026 as analysts predict a moderation in global crude oil prices, according to a new report. Read More: https://punchng.com/analysts-trade-surplus-to-narrow-as-oil-prices-moderate/
Analysts predict the Nigerian trade surplus will narrow in the second half of 2026 as oil prices stabilize after recent peaks, according to Coronation Asset Management. The firm's Q2 2026 Trade Statistics Report revealed a record $12.60tn surplus, a 101.32% year-on-year increase from $6.26tn in Q2 2025 and a 66.85% quarter-on-quarter rise from $7.55tn in Q1 2026.
The boost was fueled by soaring global crude oil prices following Middle East supply disruptions, with petroleum products making up 86.2% of total exports. Crude oil dominated foreign exchange earnings at $12.91tn, driven by $99.44 Brent prices and a 10.9% increase in domestic production to 1.53m barrels per day. Imports rose 5.91% quarter-on-quarter to $14.42tn due to demand for manufactured goods and commodities.
However, macroeconomists cautioned that Nigeria's external balance remains vulnerable to international oil market fluctuations and political factors. The US Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude to average $85 and $78 per barrel in Q3 and Q4 2026, respectively, which could temper the trade balance as shipping conditions normalize.
Structural weaknesses in the non-oil sector were also noted, with agricultural exports down 31.51% quarter-on-quarter to $802.99bn.
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